Volkswagen e-Golf = #1 EV in Germany in July

The German plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market continues on the right track in July, with 9,233 registrations. Fully electric vehicles (BEVs) were up 136% year over year (YoY), while plug-in electric vehicles … #ev #electricvehicle #electric #zeroemissions #electriccars

(PHEVs) keep stuttering (+6% in July, bringing year-to-date numbers out of the red).

With all-electrics two thirds of plug-in registrations, and the PEV share 2.8% in July, BEVs alone hit 1.8%. That keeps the 2019 plug-in share at 2.6% (1.7% BEV).

The VW e-Golf last won the monthly best seller award in October 2018, but the veteran VW e-Golf managed to win last month’s trophy yet again, and with a record performance to boot. The e-Golf’s 1,007 registrations marked the first time the German EV scored a four-digit performance.

It seems Volkswagen’s current bread and butter plug-in model still has some …

Another German model hitting record results was the BMW i3, which scored 967 registrations, allowing it to grab the silver medal last month, ahead of its rival, the Renault Zoe, which moved 910 units。 That Zoe’s 910 registrations is still an impressive performance for a model getting ready to receive significant changes。 With the current one clocking regular 1,000/month performances, how high will the heavily revised Zoe go? 1,500? 2,000? Ladies and gents, please place your bets…

In 5th place, we have the Audi e-tron, which scored 530 registrations, its best result so far, surpassing its Q7 ICE sibling (319 units) and selling at the same pace as the other Audi mammoth SUV, the Q8 (582)。

Will the Belgian-built Audi be able to reach the pace of the current sales leader, the BMW X5 (1,210 units last month)? One can only dream…

While the top positions didn’t have any changes, the leadership race became a little bit clearer, with the Renault Zoe winning precious ground over the Tesla Model 3. Assuming the generation change is done without major hiccups from Renault, the French hatchback is now the favorite to renew the 2018 model title, while the #3 BMW i3 still has a remotechance to take the leadership spot.

Off the podium we have the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with enough advantage over the ones behind it to start thinking about finding a place in the trophy room for the best selling PHEV and SUV statues.

The #8 Audi e-tron is just 6 units behind the #7 Smart Fortwo EV, and with its current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the German crossover reach #6 in a few months.

In the full-size category, the race is on between the #11 Mercedes E300e/de twins and the #10 BMW 530e, with the Mercedes reducing the Bimmer’s advantage to just 221 units, and this despite the BMW nameplate’s new record performance (432 units) — to which the rival responded with its second best result ever (464 units).

Interestingly, the performance from the 530e was just one out of the four record results made by German nameplates last month. (The others were the BMW i3, VW e-Golf, and Audi e-tron.) The empire strikes back?

In the lower positions of the ranking, the Jaguar I-PACE reached the top 20 (finally!), with the British sports CUV becoming the 13th BEV in the ranking, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV climbed one position, to #16.

Outside the top 20 ranking, we should highlight the Tesla Model X’s performance。 Tesla had 78 deliveries of the X last month, its best first-month-of-quarter performance in a year, allowing it to reduce the distance to the top 20 to just 134 units。 Meanwhile, the Mercedes EQC is still in launch mode, having registered 74 units last month。

In the brand ranking, BMW (20%, up 1%) is the leader, with Tesla (12%, down 1%) holding onto the 2nd spot and #3 Renault (11%, down 1%) hot on its tail.

Off the podium, we have Mitsubishi (9%) recovering ground on the medalists, while Volkswagen and Hyundai, both with 7% share, are still far away from the medal positions。

If you prefer seeing the sales charts with “Others” included (sales from all remaining models not in the top 20), here are those charts as well:

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About the Author

斗地主达人 Always interested in the auto industry, particularly in electric cars, Jose has been overviewing the sales evolution of plug-ins through the  since 2012, allowing him to gain an expert view on where EVs are right now and where they are headed in the future. The EV Sales blog has become a go-to source for people interested in electric car sales around the world. Extending that work and expertise, Jose is now a partner in  and works with the European Alternative Fuels Observatory on EV sales matters.

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Solar now cheaper than grid electricity across China

Solar now ‘cheaper than grid electricity’ in every Chinese city, study finds

Solar power has become cheaper than grid electricity across China, a development… #solarpower #solarenergy #renewableenergy #renewables #cleanenergy

 that could boost the prospects of industrial and commercial solar, according to a new study.

Projects in every city analysed by the researchers could be built today without subsidy, at lower prices than those supplied by the grid, and around a fifth could also compete with the nation’s coal electricity prices。

They say  – the “tipping point” at which solar generation costs the same as electricity from the grid – represents a key stage in the expansion of renewable energy sources.

While previous studies of nations  and the US have concluded that solar could achieve grid parity by 2020 in most developed countries, some have suggested China would have to .

However, the  published in  concludes a combination of technological advances, cost declines and government support has helped make grid parity a reality in Chinese today.

Despite these results, grid parity may not drive a surge in the uptake of solar, a leading analyst tells Carbon Brief.

Competitive pricing

China’s solar industry has rapidly expanded from a small, rural programme in the 1990s to the 。 It is both the biggest generator of solar power and the biggest installer of solar panels。

The installed capacity of solar panels in China in 2018 amounted to of the global total, with the country accounting for half the world’s solar additions that year。

Since 2000, the Chinese government has unveiled over 100 policies supporting the PV industry, and technological progress has helped make solar power less expensive. This has led to the cost of electricity from solar power dropping, as demonstrated in the chart below.

Chart showing the historical  (LCOE) from solar power in China. Source: Yan et al. (2019).

In their paper,  of Sweden’s  and his colleagues explain that this “stunning” performance has been accelerated by government subsidies, but has also seen China overinvesting in “redundant construction and overcapacity”。 The authors write:

“Recently, the Chinese government has been trying to lead the PV industry onto a more sustainable and efficient development track by tightening incentive policies with 。”

The researchers say the subsidy cuts under this policy in 2018 were a signal that the government wanted to make the industry less dependent on state support and shift its focus from scale to quality。

This, they say, has “brought the industry to a crossroads”, with discussions taking place in China about when solar electricity generation could achieve grid parity.

In their analysis, Yan and his team examined the prospects for building industrial and commercial solar projects without state support in 344 cities across China, attempting to gauge where or whether grid parity could be achieved.

The team estimated the total lifetime price of solar energy systems in all of these cities, taking into account net costs and profits, including project investments, electricity output and trading prices.

斗地主达人Besides establishing that installations in every city tested could supply cheaper electricity than the grid, they also compared solar to the price of coal-generated power. They found that 22% of the cities could build solar systems capable of producing electricity at cheaper prices than coal.

Embracing solar

 of solar technology, particularly crystalline silicon modules, mean the trend in China is also playing out around the world. In May, the  (IRENA)  by the beginning of next year, grid parity could become the global norm for the solar industry.

, an energy strategist at , says this is the first in-depth study he has seen looking at city-level solar costs in China, and is encouraged by this indication of solar becoming ever-more competitive。 He tells Carbon Brief:

“The conclusion that industrial and commercial solar is cheaper than grid electricity means that the workshop of the world can embrace solar。 Without subsidy and its distorting impacts, and driven by commercial gain。”

On the other hand, , head of solar analysis at , says the findings revealed by Yan and his team are “fairly old news” as the competitive price of rooftop solar in China has been known about for at least a year.

She notes that this does not mean there has been a huge accompanying rollout of industrial and commercial solar, and says this is partly because of the long-term thinking required for investment to be seen as worthwhile.

Workers install solar panels on the rooftop of a textile factory in Nantong, China。 Credit: Imaginechina Limited / Alamy Stock Photo。

The lifetime of a PV system tends to be around two decades, whereas the average lifespan of a Chinese company is only around eight years, according to Chase。 Furthermore, there is an even simpler explanation, as she explains to Carbon Brief:

“There’s also the fact that companies just can’t be bothered a lot of the time – there are roofs all over Europe where solar could probably save money, but people are not jumping to do it.”

According to Chase, a “much more exciting” development came earlier this year, when the Chinese government  for “subsidy-free solar”.

This involved guaranteeing the current coal-fired power price to solar plants for 20 years, creating what is essentially a low  and leading to what she describes as “a lot of nice, low-risk projects”.

As for the beneficial effects of grid parity, based on how things have played out in countries where it has already been achieved, Chase says it does not necessarily mean a significant uptake of solar power will follow:

斗地主达人“Grid parity solar is never as popular as subsidised solar, and ironically you don’t generally have a rush to build grid parity solar because you may as well wait until next year and get cheaper solar.”

Policy proposals

In their paper, Yan and his team lay out policy changes they think would help provide an economic incentive, in combination with grid parity, to encourage the uptake of solar power systems。

Technology costs may have fallen for smaller solar projects of the type being deployed on the rooftops of businesses, but they note that the so-called “soft costs” – including installation and maintenance – tend to be “very impactful”.

Specifically, they say aspects such as financing, land acquisition and grid accommodation, which make up over half the total cost, could be cut down:

“Labour costs are not significant [in China] because of the relatively low wages of direct labour and related installation overhead. Customer acquisition has largely been achieved in China by the mature market, with customers’ familiarity with PV systems, and with the perception that PV systems are a reliable technology. However, policymakers should consider strengthening the targeted policies on the following soft costs.”

Among the measures they suggest are new financing schemes, an effort to “streamline” the complicated procedures and taxes involved, and more geographically targeted government policies.

As their analysis showed the price of solar electricity had fallen further in some cities than others, the researchers recommend targeting future subsidies at the cities that are performing less well – keeping costs to a minimum while still providing support when it is most needed.

Yan, J. et al. (2019) City-level analysis of subsidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid parity in China, Nature Geoscience, 

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Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade

London and New York, July 31, 2019 Energy storage installations[1] around the world will multiply exponentially, from a modest 9GW/17GWh deployed as of 2018 to 1,095GW/2,850GWh by 2040, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF… #renewableenergy #renewables #storage #storagesolutions #cleanenergy

斗地主达人This 122-fold boom of stationary energy storage over the next two decades will require $662 billion of investment, according to BNEF estimates。 It will be made possible by further sharp declines in the cost of lithium-ion batteries, on top of an 85% reduction in the 2010-18 period。

BNEF’s Energy Storage Outlook 2019, published today, predicts a further halving of lithium-ion battery costs per kilowatt-hour by 2030, as demand takes off in two different markets – stationary storage and electric vehicles. The report goes on to model the impact of this on a global electricity system increasingly penetrated by low-cost wind and solar.

Yayoi Sekine, energy storage analyst for BNEF and co-author of the report, said: “Two big changes this year are that we have raised our estimate of the investment that will go into energy storage by 2040 by more than $40 billion, and that we now think the majority of new capacity will be utility-scale, rather than behind-the-meter at homes and businesses.”

BNEF’s analysis suggests that cheaper batteries can be used in more and more applications. These include energy shifting (moving in time the dispatch of electricity to the grid, often from times of excess solar and wind generation), peaking in the bulk power system (to deal with demand spikes), as well as for customers looking to save on their energy bills by buying electricity at cheap hours and using it later.

Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage at BNEF, added: “In the near term, renewables-plus-storage, especially solar-plus-storage, has become a major driver for battery build。 This is a new era of dispatchable renewables, based on new contract structures between developer and grid。”

Just 10 countries are on course to represent almost three quarters of the global market in gigawatt terms, according to BNEF’s forecast. South Korea is the lead market in 2019, but will soon cede that position, with China and the U.S. far in front by 2040. The remaining significant markets include India, Germany, Latin America, Southeast Asia, France, Australia and the U.K.

There is a fundamental transition developing in the power system and transportation sector. Falling wind, solar and battery costs mean wind and solar are set to make up almost 40% of world electricity in 2040, up from 7% today. Meanwhile passenger electric vehicles could become a third of the global passenger vehicle fleet by 2040, up from less than half a percent today, adding huge scale to the battery manufacturing sector.

Demand for storage will increase to balance the higher proportion of variable, renewable generation in the electricity system。 Batteries will increasingly be chosen to manage this dynamic supply and demand mix。

The report finds that energy storage will become a practical alternative to new-build electricity generation or network reinforcement。 Behind-the-meter storage will also increasingly be used to provide system services on top of customer applications。

The total demand for batteries from the stationary storage and electric transport sectors is forecast to be 4,584GWh by 2040, providing a major opportunity for battery makers and miners of component metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel。

  BNEF’s definition includes stationary batteries used in eight applications. It excludes pumped hydro storage.

 

Tesla Model 3 = 67% of US Electric Vehicle Sales in 2nd Quarter

I prefer comparing the Tesla Model 3 to its gasoline competitors, but it’s also logical to compare the Model 3 to other electric vehicles。 In the old days, these were…。 #electriccar #tesla #ev #electricvehicle #teslamodels #electriccars #cars #elonmusk

simply called “EV sales reports,” but the US electric vehicle market is so unbalanced at the moment that it’s hard to ignore the elephant in the room — there’s the Model 3, and there’s everything else.

In fact, even that is unbalanced, as the Model 3 accounts for 67% of US electric vehicle sales, according to 2nd quarter sales data and estimates.

The reason for the dramatic divergence in sales is up for interpretation. One reason might be that the majority of people who want an electric car don’t see anything that beats the Model 3 — or at least not for anywhere near its price point. Another reason might be that the Model 3 is the only electric vehicle that blatantly and commandingly outcompetes all of its gasoline competitors in ways that normal consumers care about. Another possibility is that word of mouth about the Model 3 has gotten around so much that it’s clearly the new “it” product for certain portions of the population. Or, more practically, consumers in a more mainstream wave of EV adoption have simply learned about .

斗地主达人In any case, the story in EV world is that the majority of EV sales are Tesla Model 3 sales. Tesla’s more expensive models (the Model S and Model X) held the #2 and #3 spots in the 2nd quarter, while the Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF were the only other models to score over 3,000 sales in the quarter. (GM’s and Nissan’s top electrified models used to see more than 3,000 sales a month.) The Audi e-tron, BMW i3, and Volkswagen e-Golf each had over 1,000 sales in Q2 — approximately as many Model 3s as Tesla sells in 2–3 days in the USA.

The charts can tell the rest of the story。

A handful of electric models are not included here because the parent companies don’t release sales data for them。 Those include the Honda Clarity EV, Hyundai Ioniq EV, Hyundai Kona EV, Kia Niro EV, and Fiat 500e。 However, if I plug in estimates from , they’re so insignificant that the Model 3 retains its 67% share of the market。

斗地主达人I hesitate to beat a demolished piñata, but it’s perhaps worth noting that many of the electric models in these charts were at various times deemed “Tesla killers” by certain members of the media. It appears there was a miscalculation in those forecasts.

If you prefer a fun chart over a static one, below is an interactive chart in which you can toggle between Q1 and Q2 sales.

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